4K and 4S - Crossing the Chasm

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I went NAB2012 in Las Vegas last week and it was my first time to go to NAB. It is Video & Audio new technologies exhibit for Professional & Prosumer markets.

All of them are leading 3D video but I am wondering how many people really want to watch all TV programs in 3D.  I have the same question on 4K and 4S which seemed to be the hot marketing buzz words this time.

• 4K stands for the next Video specification for 3284 x 2120 pixels resolution which is 4 times more than Full HD (1920 x 1080 pixels)

• 4S stands for four display device (Screen); TV, PC, Smartphone and Tablet.

There is a big chasm between the end users' willingness to buy as being said by Crossing the Chasm.  In Japan all TV broadcasts were switched over to the digital TVs which was a kind of the special procurement demand last year.  I do not think majority of them are not ready to change their digital TV for next few years.

Before the higher resolutions TV set, the TV stations have to procure the high-end Camera as well as its infrastructure must be improved such as CATV optical fiber cables to broadcast 4K TV programs and it does not help to watch the old programs if I am correct. When they storage 4K video, it will require a huge storage memory as well.

I feel something is wrong.  We might not appreciate with these technology improvements with such a high pace and anyway these home appliance companies cannot enjoy the reasonable ROI as their business.

I am afraid that they are going into the endless / unnecessary competitions at wrong time without looking at end users' expectation and benefits.  They are just competing each other with their technologies roadmap.

Is it the way how the Japanese companies can survive?  I do not think so... time to change what a competition is in their business.


 先週ラスベガスでのNAB2012に行って来ました。プロ向けのオーディオ・ビデオ機器展。

3D映像は当たり前。しかし、現状でどれだけの人が3D映像を家庭のテレビで観るでしょうか？それと同様に展示会でうたわれていた４Kと４Sにも疑問を感じます。

• 4KとはフルHDの4倍の解像度の次期ビデオ仕様
• 4Sとは映像を観る4つのスクリーン機器；つまり、TV、パソコン、スマートフォン、タブレット

本当に消費者が買いたいと思う市場のタイミングと新製品の間には深い谷があるとマーケティング的には言われます。 日本に関して言えば、デジタル放送切替特需でテレビを買い換えたばかりの市場で当面買い換え市場があるとは思えません。

高解像度のTV以前に放送局の撮影用カメラが対応しなくてはいけませんし、そうした高解像度の映像を流すインフラは？CATVの場合光ファイバー網は大変な負荷になります。そして録画ともなるとテラバイトレベルの大きな容量が必要。

何かがおかしい。こんな速いペースでのハードウエア機器の改善に消費者はついていけないでしょうし、企業のROI効果も大きな疑問が残ります。

消費者不在の企業理論の技術開発競走だけに走ると意味のない無用な競走へと自らを追いやるだけのように思います。日本企業の生き残る道？いやそうではないと舵取りする時期でしょう。